Support × turnout quadrant density
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Anchoring check: modeled vs actual 2022
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Mean turnout probability by decile
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Score histogram
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2024 → 2026 drop-off funnel
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Age cohort × support tier
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Feature importance
deployed turnout model · permutation importance (share of AUC lost when a feature is shuffled) · see
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Segment profiles
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Segment tribes
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Socio-economic validation (Census ACS)
Voters bucketed by voter-weighted income quintile: tracts ranked by median household income, cut so each quintile holds about a fifth of the voters (Q1 = lowest-income tracts). Median income is the median voter's tract median household income. A rising undervalued share across quintiles is the SES signature of where the mispriced (tier-2) votes live.
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model cardsAUC and methodology are documented per-model in the pipeline model cards; backtested on the 2024 general using pre-2024 features.